RISK ASSESSMENT OF MALICIOUS ATTACKS AGAINST POWER SYSTEMS

The new scenarios of malicious attack prompt for their deeper consideration and mainly when critical systems are at stake. In this framework, infrastructural systems, including power systems, represent a possible target due to the huge impact they can have on society. Malicious attacks are different in their nature from other more traditional cause of threats to power system, since they embed a strategic interaction between the attacker and the defender (characteristics that cannot be found in natural events or systemic failures). This difference has not been systematically analyzed by the existent literature. In this respect, new approaches and tools are needed. This paper presents a mixed-strategy game-theory model able to capture the strategic interactions between malicious agents that may be willing to attack power systems and the system operators, with its related bodies, that are in charge of defending them. At the game equilibrium, the different strategies of the two players, in terms of attacking/protecting the critical elements of the systems, can be obtained. The information about the attack probability to various elements can be used to assess the risk associated with each of them, and the efficiency of defense resource allocation is evidenced in terms of the corresponding risk. Reference defense plans related to the online defense action and the defense action with a time delay can be obtained according to their respective various time constraints. Moreover, risk sensitivity to the defense/attack-resource variation is also analyzed. The model is applied to a standard IEEE RTS-96 test system for illustrative purpose and, on the basis of that system, some peculiar aspects of the malicious attacks are pointed ou

Bidding Strategy with Forecast Technology Based on Support Vector Machine in Electrcity Market

The participants of the electricity market concern very much the market price evolution. Various technologies have been developed for price forecast. SVM (Support Vector Machine) has shown its good performance in market price forecast. Two approaches for forming the market bidding strategies based on SVM are proposed. One is based on the price forecast accuracy, with which the being rejected risk is defined. The other takes into account the impact of the producer's own bid. The risks associated with the bidding are controlled by the parameters setting. The proposed approaches have been tested on a numerical example.Comment: 8pages, 13figures, paper for the conference "Applications of Physics in Financial Analysis 6th International Conference

Approaches to the Security Analysis of Power Systems: Defence Strategies Against Malicious Threats

This report is intended to provide a conceptual framework for assessing the security risk to power systems assets and operations related to malicious attacks. The problem is analysed with reference to all the actors involved and the possible targets. The specific nature of the malicious attacks is discussed and representations in terms of strategic interaction are proposed. Models based on Game Theory and Multi Agent Systems techniques specifically developed for the representation of malicious attacks against power systems are presented and illustrated with reference to applications to small-scale test systems.JRC.G.6-Sensors, radar technologies and cybersecurit

Node Type Distribution and Its Impacts on Performance of Power Grids

The theory of complex networks has been studied extensively since its inception. However, until now, the impact of the node-type distributions is related to network topology and cannot be evaluated independently. In this paper, a network structure is modeled via an adjacency matrix (network topology) and a set of node type distribution vectors. Three specific issues that need to be considered for node type distributions in smart grid testing and planning are summarized in this paper. First, a set of metrics are proposed and defined to evaluate the impact of node-type distributions on network performance independently. Second, another metric named the generation distribution factor is proposed to evaluate the distribution of generation buses resulting from the specific function and purpose of power grids and by considering the distribution of load buses as given conditions. Third, another metric, i.e., the power supply redundancy metric based on entropy, is proposed to evaluate the inequality of load in power supply. Finally, a discrimination factor is defined to ensure the overall evaluation and comparison of different networks is made for this inequality. All proposed metrics can be applied to the IEEE-30, IEEE-118, IEEE-300 bus systems, as well as Italian power grid components. The simulation results indicate that the IEEE-118 system has the best node type distribution and minimum discrimination; the Italian system has the worst node-type distribution and most serious discrimination of load power supply

Comparative study on distributed generation trading mechanisms in the UK and China

Abstract: The market penetration of distributed generation (DG), particularly for that from renewables, has significantly increased in recent years. This trend will continue with the low‐carbon transition of electric power systems, as a part of global efforts to combat climate change. Appropriate trading mechanisms are of great importance for incentivizing the investment in and coordinated operation of DG. The UK and China both have ambitious decarbonization agendas with particular emphasis on the electricity market design. Nevertheless, the UK and China have distinguishing features in electricity market design, particularly in the trading mechanisms for DG. This paper presents a thorough review of DG trading policies and arrangements in both countries, including market structures, connection classifications, economic benefits and practical issues. The strengths, weaknesses, opportunity, and threats‐political, economical, social and technological (SWOT‐PEST) model features of the mechanisms in both countries were qualitatively identified and compared. A quantitative comparison was conducted between the trading arrangements in the UK and China, with the economic benefits analysed and the implications revealed. Finally, the directions for developing and improving DG trading mechanisms were suggested based on the comparative analysis. The practical experiences of the UK and China can be extended to other countries across the globe

Challenges and pathways of low-carbon oriented energy transition and power system planning strategy: a review

This paper provides an overview of the challenges and pathways involved in achieving a low-carbon-oriented energy transition roadmap and power system planning strategy. The transition towards low-carbon energy sources is crucial in mitigating the global climate change crisis. However, this transition presents several technical, economic, and political challenges. The paper emphasizes the importance of an integrated approach to power system planning that considers the entire energy system (including both physical and information systems and market mechanisms) and not just individual technologies. To achieve this goal, the paper discusses various pathways toward low-carbon energy transition, including the integration of renewable energy sources into current energy systems, energy efficiency measures, and market-based and regulatory strategies encompassing the implementation of regulations, standards, and policies. Furthermore, the paper underscores the need for a comprehensive and coordinated approach to energy planning, taking into account the socio-economic and political dimensions of the transition process. In addition, the paper reviews the methodologies used in modeling low-carbon-oriented power system planning, including both model-based methods and advanced machine learning-assisted solutions. Overall, the paper concludes that achieving a low-carbon-oriented energy transition roadmap and power system planning strategy requires a multi-dimensional approach that considers technical, economic, political, and social factors

Evolution of China's power dispatch principle and the new energy saving power dispatch policy

With social economic reform in the past decades, the power industry of China is gradually evolving from a highly integrated one toward an electricity market, which can be characterized based on the transition of the power dispatch principle. To attract investment in the power generating industry, China introduced non-state-owned power plants to the original system of a highly vertically integrated power industry with annual power generation quota guarantees, which makes the traditional economic dispatch principle not applicable. The newly debuted energy saving power dispatch (ESPD) is an attempt to fully exploit the maximum energy savings and was implemented by an administrative code. Starting in August 2007, the pilot operation of the ESPD was implemented in five provinces, but after two years, it is still not widely applied all over the country. This paper details the transition of China's power dispatch principle with particular attention to its origin and content. Moreover, the factors that influence the ESPD's actual energy saving effect are discussed, as well as the sustainability of the policy.Power dispatch principle Electricity market Energy saving

An Outage Risk Oriented Dynamic Distribution Network Reconfiguration Methodology Considering the Effects of Weather Conditions on Power Line Failure Rate

A dynamic network reconfiguration methodology consid- ering time-varying weather conditions is proposed. The aim of the proposed methodology is to minimize outage risk. To fully reflect actual weather severity, a classification method for weather states based on weather variables analysis is presented. Considering time- varying nature of weather, an approach to determine the optimal time for reconfiguration by comparing reliability change between adjacent intervals is provided. Then, applying the Quantum Genetic Algo- rithm to solve reconfiguration optimization problem is introduced. Simulation results on the IEEE 33-node test systems show that the proposed dynamic reconfiguration method can reduce distribution network’s outage risk. In addition, weather conditions have impacts on outage risk of distribution network and should be considered in reconfirmation problems

Mental accounting theory‐based bounded‐rationality trading strategy of prosumers in transactive energy market

Abstract In the transactive energy market (TEM), prosumers are assumed to be rational. However, prosumers’ trading behaviours are affected by many factors (e.g. social relations, personal preferences, and habits). Their trading demands vary in benefits, comfort levels, and environmental consciousness, which show bounded rationality. Accordingly, this paper introduces the mental accounting theory to develop a trading decision‐making method by characterizing prosumers’ actual trading behaviours. It quantified prosumers’ motivations and psychological changes by the risk attitude and subjective value models in the process of multi‐account management. The updating rules of trading decisions and multi‐round bidding market mechanism are also designed to improve the social welfare and market efficiency. Case studies demonstrate that the proposed method can make prosumers trade in TEM under their actual intentions and bounded‐rationality. And the market mechanism can help to increase social welfare and market efficiency